Penn State meteorologists forecast back to the top in national WxChallenge

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — After years of near misses, Penn State’s meteorology team has reclaimed the top spot in WxChallenge, the national collegiate forecasting competition that rewards precision, consistency and a deep understanding of the weather.

For the team of students and faculty in the Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science who spent 20 weeks making daily predictions for cities across the country, the victory was both a technical achievement and a personal one.

“It was very satisfying, after the last two years, to finally get the top spot,” said Luke LeBel, a doctoral student.

The win marks a return to familiar territory for a program with a long history of success in weather forecasting competitions. Although Penn State had not won the team title since 2017, the team remained a perennial contender, finishing second nationally three times during that stretch and never lower than fourth. In each of the previous two years, Penn State narrowly missed the title.

This season, the difference was consistency, the team said.

“In the team competition, WxChallenge really rewards consistency,” LeBel said. “Everybody’s score on your team matters. This year, we had a small team of really good and consistent forecasters, and that is what allowed our team to stand out.”

LeBel, who studies developing thunderstorms and the predictability of hazards such as tornadoes under department head Paul Markowski, said the contest helps keep his real-world forecasting skills sharp. He will begin this fall as an assistant professor at Iowa State University.

A contest built on precision

WxChallenge asks forecasters to predict four variables — high temperature, low temperature, maximum sustained wind speed and total precipitation — for one city at a time over a two-week period. Teams forecast for five cities each semester, 10 total over the academic year, with locations spanning a wide variety of climates and terrain across the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii.

That means competitors must quickly learn the quirks of each location, from coastal influences to mountain effects to fast-changing local weather patterns.

“The greatest challenge associated with WxChallenge is the need to be exact and accurate with your forecast,” said Alex Massa, a doctoral student. “This ultimately requires tremendous skill due to the need to understand biases associated with weather models to ensure your forecast is as accurate as possible.”

Massa said his fascination with meteorology began in second grade during an ice storm that briefly trapped students in his school building. Today, his research focuses on improving the detection of atmospheric river systems, work that could ultimately improve severe-weather forecasts.

“I knew then I wanted to become a meteorologist,” Massa said.

There is also a simpler challenge: remembering to submit a forecast every day. Missing an entry carries a steep penalty and can damage the team’s standing.

“One big challenge is the dedication it takes to find time to submit your daily forecasts,” said Steve Seman, associate teaching professor of meteorology and atmospheric science. “Finding time in a busy schedule to analyze the weather in a far-away city requires a lot of effort.”

Why this Penn State team stood out

In a competition where every team member’s score matters, Penn State’s strength came from having a small, experienced group that produced reliable forecasts from start to finish.

Braedon “Brady” Stouffer, a doctoral student and one of the team’s top individual performers, said that experience made a difference.

“Our team mostly consisted of graduate students and faculty who had a lot of past forecasting and WxChallenge experience,” Stouffer said.

Stouffer said forecasting appeals to him because it reveals how deeply someone understands the atmosphere and because the weather always has a way of humbling even the best forecasters. He said he hopes to build a career as a weather consultant.

Grant LaChat, a doctoral student, emphasized that the result reflected the work of the entire seven-person team, not just the top scorers.

“The team trophy recognizes the top five forecasters, but in reality, this was a team,” LaChat said. “It truly was a team effort.”

LaChat, whose interest in meteorology was shaped by severe weather events in the Washington, D.C., area, will begin this fall as an assistant professor at the United States Naval Academy. He said he is eager to share his passion for weather and forecasting with future Navy and Marine Corps officers.

Penn State also had standout individual performances. Stouffer finished as the second best forecaster in the entire contest and won three city awards. Seman was the second-best faculty forecaster and also claimed three city awards. LaChat and Ben Reppert, a lecturer in the department, each earned city honors.

Still, team members repeatedly returned to the same theme: avoiding major mistakes mattered just as much as posting spectacular scores.

“Skilled weather forecasters can consistently create quality forecasts and minimize large errors,” Seman said. “We were able to perform consistently well in many different climate regions and weather regimes throughout the year.”

Competition, camaraderie and a little trash talk

Though WxChallenge requires each participant to submit forecasts independently, team members said one of the best parts of the experience was the camaraderie that grew around the daily routine.

LeBel said discussions about forecast setups, postmortems on missed calls and some good-natured ribbing helped make the season memorable.

“Discussing forecast outcomes — and poking fun at forecast misses — makes the experience really enjoyable,” LeBel said.

Stouffer added, “it’s fun to mess with some of the other forecasters since we know each other very well at this point.”

For LaChat, who has competed in the contest for eight years, finally winning the overall trophy was “a cathartic moment of happiness,” especially after so many close finishes.

The competition also offered something beyond bragging rights. Forecasting for unfamiliar places forced participants to think beyond textbook patterns and rely on judgment.

“My favorite part of the competition is being able to forecast for locations that I don’t typically visit,” Massa said. “That is what allows your forecasting skills to shine as we are able to identify biases within the computer weather models.”

LeBel said that challenge is part of what keeps forecasting meaningful, even in an age of increasingly sophisticated computer guidance.

“These days, computer model guidance alone can result in pretty good forecasts,” LeBel said. “Figuring out where and how human experience and intuition can add value is the game.”

A reflection of Penn State’s program

Team members said the victory also speaks to the strength of the department.

“One strength is that the faculty have wide-ranging areas of expertise,” LeBel said. “When taking classes here, you are learning from true experts in the course material.”

Seman noted that Penn State is one of the oldest and largest meteorology departments in the country, with a long tradition of excellence in weather analysis and forecasting. For students, that translates into opportunities to explore many different corners of the field.

“If you want to become a meteorologist, this is the place to go,” LaChat said, “Because you will be able to pursue whatever your primary interests are in the field.”